By Kevin Grewal
In the midst of a natural disaster and catastrophe in Chile, the metals and mining industry is likely to see positive price supports in the near future.
One major factor that drives the price of metals is the efficiency and speed of extraction of the metal in the production and mining process. According to analysts, this process is likely to be hindered. The good news is that most of Chile’s copper deposits and port facilities are in the northern half of the nation and had no major reports of damage. However, despite locality, numerous copper mines, responsible for more that 15% of Chile’s copper output halted operations as a result of the quake.
Although most copper mines are expected to resume operations, many suggest that production and output could be hindered due to damage to Chile’s infrastructure, disruption in electricity and power generation and an increase in difficulty in transportation to and from the mines.
Metals and mining giants, BHP Billition (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RTP), both who hold significant stakes in the world’s largest copper mine have openly stated that operations in Chilean mines will resume and damage to mines is obsolete, but are still concerned with production efficiency.
Some ETFs that are likely to benefit from supply pressures caused by the earthquake and see positive price forces include:
- the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining (XME), which closed at $51.31 on Friday.
- the iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC), which closed at $44.70 on Friday.
- the iShares MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH), of which a significant portion of assets are allocated to copper mining operations. ECH closed at $56.75 on Friday.
- the PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB), which allocates a significant portion of its asset base to futures contracts on copper. DBB closed at $20.80 on Friday.
Although positive price pressures are expected to be seen in these ETFs, it is equally important to consider the inherent risk that they carry. To help mitigate these risks, it is important to implement an exit strategy which triggers price points at which an upward trend could potentially be coming to an end and enable one to preserve equity.
According to the latest data at www.SmartStops.net, an upward trend in the mentioned ETFs could come to an end at the following price points: XME at $48.19; JJC at $42.18; ECH at $54.49; DBB at $19.77. These price points change on a daily basis as market conditions fluctuate and updated data can be found at www.SmartStops.net.