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Unprecedented Monthly Volume Sell-Off Suggests Now’s the Time to Take Shelter - published at Minyanville by Kevin A. Tuttle
Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow, or a month from now. The risk of entering is not worth the reward.
Over the weekend I had the pleasure of speaking with a very prominent European money manager – overseeing hundreds of billions – about the “across-the-pond” financial crisis unwind and looming hazard of a potential domino-effect coming to fruition. Without rehashing the entire conversation, the consensus is not “if,” it’s “when” will the developing pressure finally blow. He actually went so far as to say it could truly begin unraveling within the next few weeks considering the catalysts currently in play.
The intent of providing the conversation synopsis is not for sake of fear, but understanding the potential ramifications. About three years ago, in one of my firm’s quarterly reports, we opined on a unique situation in regard to the GDP measurements of Global Nations. It stated the unprecedented growth statistics from the 56 nations tracked. “History is currently being made in the sense that all the globally tracked economic growth nations (56), every one… 100%…, are showing expansion.” This lead to my next comment… “If the economic cycle pendulum swings in both directions what would happen if the inverse occurred?” Are 2011/2012 the years we are about to find out? Maybe that’s somewhat extreme, but yet… is it possible?
We at my firm do not pretend to be intelligent enough to figure out all the nuances, catalysts, causes and reasons why the markets could fall apart; we’ll leave it to the team of economists and officials to attempt to sort that out. What we do instead is try to determine when the storm is coming and how to take shelter, which brings me to my point: Now is the time. Take shelter! Do not concern yourself if the market goes up today, tomorrow or a month from now. Clarity is key! Would you sail your boat into rocky waters with a potential hurricane looming because of your love of sailing? Is the risk worth the reward? For some, maybe; but for most, probably not.
Since the “2011 Channel of Indecision” broke on August 4, the seas have picked up dramatically and have begun swallowing ships. The markets have never seen this type of monthly volume sell-off – 47% above average (unprecedented), as seen in the monthly chart above. As Kenny Rogers put it so eloquently… “Know when to hold em’ and know when to fold em’, know when to walk away, know when to run!”
Brazil is currently suffering from of one its worst ever natural disasters after extensive rainfall and flooding has caused massive mudslides and killed many people, potentially having an impact on production of coffee and sugar in Latin America’s largest economy.
According to BBC News, harsh storms in the nation dumped the equivalent of one month’s rainfall in just a few hours on Wednesday, sending mudslides ragging through towns, destroying homes, roads, and bridges, while taking out power and telephone lines. Worst of all, municipal offices in the Serrana region, just north of Rio de Janeiro, have reported that death tolls as a result of the mudslides have surpassed the 500 mark and continue to grow. Read More…
The global price of food continues to increase illustrated by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index rising to 214.7, the sixth consecutive month that the index has risen as supply and demand imbalances continue to take their toll on food prices.
Demand for food continues to rise as wealth in developing nation like China, India and Brazil has elevated food consumption as consumers in these nations starve of their traditional eating habits and seek more of a Western-style diet. This elevated demand, combined with supply constraints, has provided positive price support to commodities like corn, wheat, coffee and cotton and cooking oils. Read More…
On Friday, concerns over future supplies of sugar pushed prices up to their highest levels since November 10th as inclement weather in the US and declining output in Brazil pave the path to projected shortages on the supply side of the commodity.
Mother Nature is delivering one of the coldest weathers in the past decade throughout parts of the United States causing freezing temperatures in Florida to severely damage sugarcane crops and limit future production of sugar. Read More…