SmartStops Comment: We couldn’t agree more with this author.
From Seeking Alpha, Contrarian Profits
The bulls are back out in force, as the hiccups from a few weeks ago seem a distant memory. Indexes have resumed breaking records on a regular basis, and all seems right with the world.
Great – trust me, few things make me happier than a happy market. I like making money as much as the next guy.
But I’m also a little more suspicious than the next guy. And right now, that suspicion is warranted.
… Today, the average price-to-earnings ratio of an S&P 500 stock is a hair below 19. The long-term average is right around 15. We’re solidly sitting in overbought territory. Stocks are expensive right now.
“We’re between the bottom of the seventh and the top of the eighth,” Marks said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. “It’s time for the seventh-inning stretch. You have to have plenty of defense on the field today.”
SmartStops Comment: Defense is the best Offense!
The past year has been a dramatic time for electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY). After nearly tripling its stock price, peaking at $45 a share in November 2013, the company’s stock plummeted almost 30 percent after releasing its fourth quarter earnings report. The store had weak sales during what should have been a strong holiday season and fell far short of its goals.
Over the past decade, Best Buy and similar retailers have faced difficulties competing with websites like Amazon.com (AMZN). The theory is that consumers use brick-and-mortar stores like showrooms. After finding the products they like, customers then take their business online. Read More…
SmartStops comment: We couldn’t agree more! It is exactly why we brought this service to the marketplace.
Look at the money protected by SmartStops recently on AAPL, CMG, NFLX etc.
The markets experienced a period of excessive turmoil and uncertainty this past year. However, despite facing the “Fiscal Cliff”, a continued European debt crisis, high US unemployment and a presidential election, the S&P 500 managed to produce a gain of 13.47%.
So, what can we expect for the year ahead? Nobody knows for sure, but measurements of market risk are sending signals that this may be a good time to buy.
The VIX, a measurement of implied future volatility, remains low at just 13.26. This has partly been influenced by the continued quantitative easing by the Fed which results in a great deal of liquidity in the markets and lower volatility.
According to SmartStops.net’s market risk signals, the percent of S&P 500 components currently in the above normal risk state is down to 14%. This is historically very low and below the 100 day risk ratio average of 42% producing an SRBI of 0.33. An SRBI below 1 indicates risk has been on the decline.
Visit the SmartStops Market Risk Barometer
When we review 2012 and compare the SmartStops Risk Ratio for the S&P 500 to its performance, we clearly see the inverse relationship between risk and performance. The current low risk ratio of just 14% indicates it may be a good time to buy.
Published previously in the SmartStops Members Year End Letter.
As always, market and equity performance are influenced by many factors and their direction can change on a dime. We should all invest accordingly.
To learn more about sidestepping periods of elevated risk and improving returns per day in the market, Visit www.smartstops.net.
SmartStops Comment:: Indeed, Beta and correlation approaches are not enough to manage risk in today’s markets. However we have somewhere for you to run – to intelligent self-adjusting risk methodologies that the SmartStops optimization engine offers.
Originally published at Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/815851-nowhere-to-run-the-correlation-bubble
Fundamental analysis of “buy and hold” companies is a quaint, Warren Buffetish notion that probably works in the long term. But as Keynes said, in the long term we’re all dead. The big risk in today’s über-correlated markets is systemic shock. One can practice due diligence on a company and buy at a reasonable valuation, but if global markets collapse the next day and don’t recover for years, one has paid a lot in opportunity cost. In other words, tail risk is not reflected in fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis is valuable so long as the basic fabric of capital markets remains intact. In an insane world (where U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds are considered “risk-free”, of infinite rehypothecation, where MF Global’s John Corzine walks off with $200M segregated assets, of the London Whale, LIBOR, Goldman’s muppets, regulatory capture of SEC and Fed, U.S. / China animosity and the dollar’s loss of world reserve status) it’s unlikely that business-as-usual will continue without a disruptive bout of creative destruction.
Precisely when and how it will occur is anyone’s guess, but, unfortunately, old school techniques like cross-asset class and regional diversification have lost their glimmer. Just as socioeconomic disparity is partitioning the globe into lords and serfs, so too has the market been divided into polarized castes of highly correlated risk-on assets and (scarce few) risk-off havens.